Articles which have caught my interest. Mostly Israel stuff and other nubbins from the ongoing holy war.

 
Passover Time
I'll be taking a vacation tomorrow. Back on Sunday.

Happy Passover for all my Jewish Friends out there and Happy Easter for my Christian ones. As for the rest of my friends, enjoy the vacation time and be safe, healthy, and happy.
posted at 1:15 AM

 
Abu Abbas Captured

A nice little fringe benefit of the liberation of Iraq is the US capture of Abu Abbas, the Palestinian terrorist behind the hijacking of the Achille Lauro in 1985 and the murder of American tourist Leon Klinghoffer. (Just to remind you: Klinghoffer, a wheelchair-bound senior citizen was shot and thrown overboard.)

Expect the Palestinians to start screaming about Abu Abbas having been pardoned under the Oslo Accords, then expect the Americans to point out that the Oslo Accords were between Israel and the Palestinians and that the man is wanted on a U.S. warrant. Then expect a long and messy court battle which will doubtlessly involve France and Belgium.

However, it is another sign to the terrorists that there's a new sherrif in town.
posted at 1:15 AM

 
Game Over
According to the Pentagon, the fighting part of this war is more or less over now that Tikrit fell after offering up much less resistance than was feared. Now the Tikritis can merrily raid Saddam's dream palace on the banks of the Tigris and cart away every little (gold-plated) bit they can. As far as the war goes, all that's left is to bring a little order back to the streets (which shouldn't be too hard, considering that most Iraqis want it returned) and to trade amusing stories about Saddam's "Love Shack" and Uday's collection of nekkid pictures he downloaded off the Internet.

From the military aspect, Gulf War II was short and -- although not sweet -- definitely less damaging than most people had predicted. Around 150 coalition casulaties. 600-1,000 civilians. (And these are the official counts. Even the anti-war fools at Indymedia don't put the maximum number higher than 1,800.) As one soldier was quoted as saying, "It's like we got to the Superbowl but the other side didn't show up."

Now comes the rebuilding part. The meetings currently being held in Ur should provide an early clue as to what the coalition has in store for a post-Saddam Iraq.

Outside of rebuilding Iraq, I would imagine that we'll be seeing the following in the very near future:

• The administration will continue to have harsh words for Syria's dime-store dictator, Bashar Assad, especially when the extent of Bashar's help to the Iraqi regime and its fugitives. There will be a lot of saber-rattling, the U.S. may impose sanctions (France will object strenuously), and those who see the hand of the Jews behind everything will have something new to chew on. In the end, however, Damascus will pipe down. Sadly, Bashar will be allowed to celebrate his third anniversary as maximum leader.


• The people who prophesized a quagmire in Iraq (many of whom, I'd imagine, were bitterly disappointed when it failed to materialize) will come up with a bunch of new predictions about coming disasters in Iraq. (Mark Steyn has a useful guide.)


• The anti-war clowns, far from being deterred by the fact that their predictions proved wrong and that their protests only served to support a brutal dictatorship, will transition into being anti-occupation clowns. This will have the added attraction of making the Iraqi/Palestinian parallels much more clear.


• Despite declaring that she would apologize if her predictions about the war were proven wrong, Janeane Garofalo won't, thus snuffing out any chance that I'll like her ever again.

posted at 6:35 PM

 
CNN in Iraq

There was an interesting letter from Eason Jordan, an executive at CNN, in this weekend's NY Times. In the letter, Jordan admitted that CNN had over the course of the last 12 years been forced to turn a blind eye to many of the attrocities of the Saddam regime in order to protect CNN personnel and ensure that CNN would be allowed to operate out of Iraq.

Jordan mentions one instance in particular when Uday Hussein bragged that he planned to kill two of his brothers-in-law who had fled to neighboring Jordan to seek sanctuary. CNN did not report this item (although Jordan did tell King Hussein, to no avail) and the brothers-in-law were lured back to Iraq and put to death.

Jordan's letter is an eye-opening document and one which illustrates a crucial journalistic connundrum.

The CNN executive concludes his letter with the following statement

I felt awful having these stories bottled up inside me. Now that Saddam Hussein's regime is gone, I suspect we will hear many, many more gut-wrenching tales from Iraqis about the decades of torment. At last, these stories can be told freely.

Now, while I'm happy for Eason Jordan that he's managed to get that off his chest, the issue that he raises is problematic in the extreme. From his perspective, CNN's failure to report on the regime's cruelties was the only thing that allowed CNN to report from Iraq at all. A more jaundiced perspective would claim that the failure to report helped extend the life of the regime and has tainted all of CNN's reportage.

Setting aside the problem of CNN's credibility in the wake of these confessions, I think the bigger problem is the role of the journalist in the first place. Eason Jordan would argue that his job is to bring the Truth to people's living rooms and that he can't do that if he isn't allowed in the country. But on the other hand, what good does it do to bring in a partial version of the Truth when the price of this is to ignore the real story?
posted at 4:31 PM

 
Road Map Leading Nowhere

Sharon's interview in Haaretz yesterday continues to make waves all over the political spectrum. The right wing of his coalition are up in arms at the mere thought of Israel giving up even the remotest settlements. Meretz and the other left-wing parties in the opposition are basically saying that talk is cheap and that they don't believe the Prime Minister. The Palis, as usual, are jumping up and down demanding that someone -- the US, the Europeans -- force Israel to bend to their demands.

As I see it, the road map is liable to get bunged up in one of two ways:

The first way will come from Sharon, who will demand that the implementation of the road map be staggered in such a way that Sharon can put off doing anything with the settlements until later, rather than earlier, in the game. (Aluf Ben sketches out this scenario.) In particular, he will angle for a Palestinian declaration giving up the right of return into Israel at the outset of the process in return for the establishment of a Palestinian state at the outset of the process.

The sad thing about this scenario is that on the face of it Sharon's demands seem eminently reasonable to everyone except the lefties, the Palestinians and the Europeans: the Palestinians give up what is essentially their demand for two Palestinian states (one Palestinian, one bi-national which will become Palestinian over time) and in return we get Two States for Two Nations Living Peacefully Side by Side like Bush has called for repeatedly. By giving up the call for the right of return, the Palestinians start to regain the trust of the Israeli silent majority, who will in turn back Sharon up when his coalition falls apart.

As a bonus, further Israeli-Palestinian talks become discussions between two sovereign countries and are thus placed on a much more rational footing. (Today's Jerusalem Post editorial spells out this argument quite well).

In short, it seems like a rational deal to me. But then again I'm not much of a salesman.

Sadly, as we've found out before, there's nothing rational about the Israeli-Palestinian talks. And the right of return issues is the worst hot button of them all, since it touches on the deepest feelings of both sides. Israel sees it as negating its existence of a Jewish state and as a tangible existential threat. The Palestinians see it as a balm for their wounded dignity and their feelings of historical injustice. In short, a non-starter.

However, the road map may very well crash before it even gets to this stage. The second, and more immediate, way of getting bunged up comes courtesy of the leering bastard in the Muqat'a, our old friend and Nobel Peace Prize laureate, the ra'is Yasser Arafat.

Yesterday, Abu Mazen presented his reformist cabinet to the Fatah Central Committee. The new Palestinian Prime Minister managed to purge a lot of Arafat's cronies from the top positions and put Mohammed Dahlan as the head security chief. The ra'is rejected the cabinet outright. Now we wait to see what happens. The establishment of a Palestinian Authority government not steeped in blood and corruption was one of the U.S. conditions for putting the road map on the table. Abu Mazen basically has to defeat Arafat on this issue. If he can't deliver an Arafat-free government, or if he resigns in despair, then Sharon can very rightly turn to GWB and say that there's no one to talk to on the other side.

In the meantime, expect things to continue as they are. Badly.
posted at 7:28 PM

 
Next on the List?

What the hell is wrong with Bashar Assad? When Assad Jr. ascended to his father's throne 3 years ago, people had hopes that he would be a rational and liberal influence in the region. Instead, the goony-looking Syrian dictator has proven himself to have all his daddy's extremism with none of the caution or finesse.

How else do you explain Baby Assad backing Saddam -- one of Assad Sr.'s greatest enemies -- in this particular horse race? Over the last couple of weeks we've heard reports of Bashar opening up Syria's border to let weapons and fighters reach Iraq. Now we're hearing stories of Syria hiding Iraqi WMDs and helping Ba'athist fugitives escape justice.

So, now Assad has managed to greatly piss off Bush & co. And this is even before they start looking at his support of terrorist groups and his drug smuggling operations.

Rumsfeld gets that real sour expression every time the subject of Syria comes up, and the regime in Damascus has basically been warned to cool it if they don't want to be next on America's ass-kicking list. The British have also given them a warning.

(On the bright side, they'll always have one staunch ally: France.)

In response, Syria has begun rattling its sword and hatching a plan to turn Iraq into the next Lebanon.

So what's with the guy? Either this is a case of an inexperienced leader who hasn't figured out the limits of what he can get away with or else the pissing match with America is a dumb ploy to inherit Saddam's mantle as the Hero of the Arab World (or at least the fools therein).

Personally, I say This Year Baghdad, Next Year Damascus. Or even This Year.
posted at 7:25 PM

 
Interview with Sharon

Unlike his two predecessors, Ariel Sharon is not much of a media hog. During their tenures as Prime Minister, Bibi Netanyahu and Ehud Barak were interviewed on the nighly news so often that you just got sick of seeing their mugs. In contrast, Sharon rarely grants interviews and hardly gives speeches. In fact, the man has been all but silent since the most recent elections.

All of which makes Sharon's one-on-one with Ari Shavit in today's Ha'aretz even bigger news than it would otherwise be. The interview, coming as it does with the Iraqi war and the proposed road map to peace in the background, has sent the media and political establishment buzzing. Sharon makes a number of statements in the piece revealing a willingness to make compromises and gestures towards a political agreement with the Palestinians.

On the settlements, Sharon goes beyond his standard rhetoric about the need for "painful concessions":

Look, we are talking about the cradle of the Jewish people. Our whole history is bound up with these places. Bethlehem, Shiloh, Beit El. And I know that we will have to part with some of these places. There will be a parting from places that are connected to the whole course of our history. As a Jew, this agonizes me. But I have decided to make every effort to reach a settlement. I feel that the rational necessity to reach a settlement is overcoming my feelings.

On the question of a Palestinian state, Sharon is even more explicit:

I believe that this is what will happen. One has to view things realistically. Eventually there will be a Palestinian state. I view things first and foremost from our perspective. I do not think that we have to rule over another people and run their lives. I do not think that we have the strength for that. It is a very heavy burden on the public and it raises ethical problems and heavy economic problems.

If the PM can be taken at his word then it sounds like he is ready to make a dramatic gesture which will have broad ramifications for his government. If Sharon agrees to uproot settlements, or even impose a settlement freeze, he will lose the support of a large chunk of his coalition. The National Religious Party and the National Union will almost certainly leave the government and Sharon will find himself under attack from elements within the Likud led by Netanyahu.

Sharon is a canny politician, but my gut feeling is that he won't have the political courage to pull this off. My suspicion is that either he or the Palestinians will find a way to drive the road map into the ground. Unless the road map spells out very clearly the steps that both sides need to take, the order in which they need to take, and penalties for failing to take these steps, then the road map will suffer the same fate as Oslo.
posted at 11:03 PM

 
Interview with Sharon

Unlike his two predecessors, Ariel Sharon is not much of a media hog. During their tenures as Prime Minister, Bibi Netanyahu and Ehud Barak were interviewed on the nighly news so often that you just got sick of seeing their mugs. In contrast, Sharon rarely grants interviews and hardly gives speeches. In fact, the man has been all but silent since the most recent elections.

All of which makes Sharon's one-on-one with Ari Shavit in today's Ha'aretz even bigger news than it would otherwise be. The interview, coming as it does with the Iraqi war and the proposed road map to peace in the background, has sent the media and political establishment buzzing. Sharon makes a number of statements in the piece revealing a willingness to make compromises and gestures towards a political agreement with the Palestinians.

On the settlements, Sharon goes beyond his standard rhetoric about the need for "painful concessions":

Look, we are talking about the cradle of the Jewish people. Our whole history is bound up with these places. Bethlehem, Shiloh, Beit El. And I know that we will have to part with some of these places. There will be a parting from places that are connected to the whole course of our history. As a Jew, this agonizes me. But I have decided to make every effort to reach a settlement. I feel that the rational necessity to reach a settlement is overcoming my feelings.

On the question of a Palestinian state, Sharon is even more explicit:

I believe that this is what will happen. One has to view things realistically. Eventually there will be a Palestinian state. I view things first and foremost from our perspective. I do not think that we have to rule over another people and run their lives. I do not think that we have the strength for that. It is a very heavy burden on the public and it raises ethical problems and heavy economic problems.

If the PM can be taken at his word then it sounds like he is ready to make a dramatic gesture which will have broad ramifications for his government. If Sharon agrees to uproot settlements, or even impose a settlement freeze, he will lose the support of a large chunk of his coalition. The National Religious Party and the National Union will almost certainly leave the government and Sharon will find himself under attack from elements within the Likud led by Netanyahu.

Sharon is a canny politician, but my gut feeling is that he won't have the political courage to pull this off. My suspicion is that either he or the Palestinians will find a way to drive the road map into the ground. Unless the road map spells out very clearly the steps that both sides need to take, the order in which they need to take, and penalties for failing to take these steps, then the road map will suffer the same fate as Oslo.

posted at 11:02 PM

 
Bye Bye Sealed Room

Well, it's official. Israel has just stepped down its state of alert. This means we can unseal the sealed rooms and stow away the gas kits.

Defense minister Shaul Mofaz made the dramatic announcement this afternoon. Well, it would be more of a dramatic announcement if anyone had taken the gas masks and sealed rooms seriously in the first place. As it is, almost no one has been carrying around the gas mask kits. I don't know what the state of the sealed rooms in the country is, but we've been airing ours out for upcoming house guests.

Mofaz announced that the Arrow and Patriot missiles are still in place and on call in case anything happens. (There's a battery of Patriots stationed not 10 minutes up the road from us in Tel Aviv, which is kind of cool).

Yet another sign that this war is all but over.


posted at 4:59 PM